{
  "title": "Total Investment Range and Scenario ROI",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "asOf": "2026-02-22",
  "currency": "USD 2026",
  "classification": "modeled",
  "investmentRange": {
    "lowCapexBillion": 114,
    "baseCapexBillion": 224,
    "highCapexBillion": 434,
    "note": "Portfolio-scale planning range from reference 10 MAF/yr program"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Normal",
      "annualNetBenefitBillion": {
        "lowCase": 13.0,
        "baseCase": 3.8,
        "highCase": -14.0
      },
      "benefitCostRatio": {
        "lowCase": 1.46,
        "baseCase": 0.83,
        "highCase": 0.49
      },
      "interpretation": "Execution-sensitive in normal hydrology; requires cost discipline."
    },
    {
      "name": "Drought",
      "annualNetBenefitBillion": {
        "lowCase": 55.0,
        "baseCase": 45.8,
        "highCase": 28.0
      },
      "benefitCostRatio": {
        "lowCase": 3.92,
        "baseCase": 2.35,
        "highCase": 1.07
      },
      "interpretation": "Avoided-loss value dominates under recurring shortages."
    },
    {
      "name": "Megadrought",
      "annualNetBenefitBillion": {
        "lowCase": 133.0,
        "baseCase": 123.8,
        "highCase": 106.0
      },
      "benefitCostRatio": {
        "lowCase": 9.44,
        "baseCase": 6.98,
        "highCase": 4.06
      },
      "interpretation": "Functions as infrastructure + catastrophe insurance in extreme stress."
    }
  ],
  "source": "/research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md"
}