{
  "title": "Megadrought Probability Timeline (Scenario Model)",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "asOf": "2026-02-22",
  "units": "probability percent",
  "classification": "modeled",
  "method": "Scenario model calibrated to historical drought baseline + warming/depletion multipliers; presented as uncertainty bands to avoid false precision.",
  "timeline": [
    {
      "window": "2026-2035",
      "p10": 15,
      "p50": 35,
      "p90": 55,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "notes": "Risk rises as drought persistence and groundwater stress compound.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/",
        "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/groundwater-decline-and-depletion"
      ]
    },
    {
      "window": "2036-2045",
      "p10": 40,
      "p50": 62,
      "p90": 85,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "notes": "Modeled risk accelerates if warming trend and depletion trend continue.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/",
        "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/groundwater-decline-and-depletion",
        "/research/methods/capture-model.md"
      ]
    },
    {
      "window": "2046-2055",
      "p10": 55,
      "p50": 78,
      "p90": 93,
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "notes": "Tail risk remains high; uncertainty widens with policy/adaptation responses.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/",
        "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/groundwater-decline-and-depletion",
        "/research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md"
      ]
    }
  ]
}