{
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "asOf": "2026-02-23",
  "note": "Every headline stat is tagged as measured, derived, or modeled. Corrected per independent stress-test validation.",
  "metrics": [
    {
      "id": "aquifer_depletion_rate",
      "claim": "U.S. aquifers are depleting at 25 km³/year — 3x the 20th century average",
      "classification": "measured",
      "confidence": "high",
      "source": "USGS SIR 2013-5079 (Konikow 2013), updated with GRACE-FO satellite data",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/groundwater-decline-and-depletion",
      "methodDoc": "/research/methods/monitoring-wells.md",
      "notes": "Most robust and defensible statistic in the entire analysis. Direct measurement via 20,000+ monitoring wells + satellite gravimetry."
    },
    {
      "id": "megadrought_probability",
      "claim": ">60% probability of unprecedented megadrought this century",
      "classification": "modeled (peer-reviewed)",
      "confidence": "medium-high",
      "source": "Cook et al. 2015 (Science Advances) — >80% under RCP 8.5; Williams et al. 2022 (Nature Climate Change) — worst 22-yr drought in 1,200 years",
      "sourceUrl": "https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082",
      "methodDoc": "/research/megadrought-probability-timeline.json",
      "notes": "Regional to SW US. Probability is scenario-dependent (RCP 8.5 = high emissions). We present >60% as conservative aggregate. Original research model's '100%' claim was methodologically unsound."
    },
    {
      "id": "bcr_drought",
      "claim": "Every $1 invested returns $2-4 under drought conditions",
      "classification": "modeled",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "source": "Document 09: CAPEX/OPEX Scenario ROI model, 10 MAF/yr reference portfolio",
      "sourceUrl": "/research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md",
      "datasetRef": "/research/investment-scenario-roi.json",
      "notes": "BCR 2.35 at base cost under drought. BCR 3.92 at low cost. Under normal hydrology, base-case BCR is 0.83 (marginally negative). Honest range presentation is critical."
    },
    {
      "id": "bcr_megadrought",
      "claim": "BCR 7-17:1 under severe megadrought scenarios",
      "classification": "modeled",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "source": "Document 09 + stress-test validation extending to paleoclimate scenarios",
      "sourceUrl": "/research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md",
      "notes": "9.44:1 from low-cost/megadrought model. 17:1 maximum defensible under extreme paleoclimate megadrought (30+ years). Claims above 17:1 are NOT supported by rigorous methodology."
    },
    {
      "id": "central_valley_critical",
      "claim": "Central Valley faces critical aquifer depletion by 2047-2069",
      "classification": "measured + modeled",
      "confidence": "high",
      "source": "USGS + NASA GRACE + California SGMA legislation timeline",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/groundwater-decline-and-depletion",
      "methodDoc": "/research/methods/monitoring-wells.md",
      "notes": "Best-supported timeline claim. 40% depleted (measured). SGMA legislation confirms regulators agree on the urgency. Range reflects management response uncertainty."
    },
    {
      "id": "infrastructure_gap",
      "claim": "Federal water infrastructure spending is 4-5x lower than transportation — $80-100B/yr gap",
      "classification": "measured",
      "confidence": "high",
      "source": "ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (drinking water: C-) + federal budget analysis",
      "sourceUrl": "https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/drinking-water-infrastructure/",
      "notes": "IIJA allocated $55B for water (largest ever) but annual gap persists at $80-100B/yr."
    },
    {
      "id": "investment_base_case",
      "claim": "$224 billion base-case CAPEX for 10 MAF/yr ASR program",
      "classification": "modeled",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "source": "Document 09 engineering cost model",
      "sourceUrl": "/research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md",
      "datasetRef": "/research/investment-scenario-roi.json",
      "notes": "Range: $114B (low) to $434B (high). Earlier $6.6T figure from separate model had apparent errors and has been deprecated."
    },
    {
      "id": "megadrought_probability_timeline",
      "label": "Megadrought probability timeline with uncertainty bands",
      "classification": "modeled",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "source": "Internal scenario model calibrated to Cook et al. + Williams et al. + USGS depletion data",
      "methodDoc": "/research/methods/capture-model.md",
      "datasetRef": "/research/megadrought-probability-timeline.json",
      "notes": "Presented as P10/P50/P90 bands to avoid false precision."
    },
    {
      "id": "preparedness_phases",
      "label": "25-year build plan (0-5yr, 5-12yr, 12-25yr phases)",
      "classification": "program plan",
      "source": "Program design assumptions + staged deployment model",
      "methodDoc": "/research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md",
      "datasetRef": "/research/preparedness-phases.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "water_budget",
      "label": "Regional water budget balance sheet",
      "classification": "measured (demand) + modeled (capture)",
      "source": "USGS water-use data + state water plans + engineering capture model",
      "datasetRef": "/research/water-budget-balance-sheet.json",
      "notes": "ASR reduces deficit by ~52% but cannot eliminate it. Demand management is essential complement."
    }
  ]
}