{
  "title": "Why Now — Source-backed Stats with Caveats",
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "asOf": "2026-02-23",
  "stats": [
    {
      "claim": "U.S. aquifer depletion has accelerated to 25 km³/year — 3x the 20th-century average rate of ~9.2 km³/year.",
      "type": "measured",
      "source": "USGS SIR 2013-5079 (Konikow 2013), updated with GRACE-FO satellite data",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/groundwater-decline-and-depletion",
      "caveat": "Rate is a national aggregate; depletion is spatially uneven. Some subregions are stable while others face rapid decline."
    },
    {
      "claim": "Colorado River flows since 2000 have been roughly 20% lower than the 20th-century average, with 16.5 MAF allocated against 12-13 MAF actual flow.",
      "type": "measured",
      "source": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation + peer-reviewed attribution studies",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-24month/",
      "caveat": "Exact percentage varies by baseline window and method. Lake Mead is at ~1,065 ft (Jan 2026), down ~150 ft from 2000."
    },
    {
      "claim": "Leading climate scientists project >60% probability of unprecedented megadrought in the American Southwest this century.",
      "type": "measured + modeled",
      "source": "Cook et al. 2015 (Science Advances): >80% under RCP 8.5. Williams et al. 2022 (Nature Climate Change): 2000-2021 was worst 22-year drought in 1,200 years, 42% attributable to anthropogenic warming.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082",
      "caveat": "Probability is scenario-dependent and regional (SW US). Under lower-emission scenarios, probability decreases. We use >60% as a conservative cross-scenario aggregate."
    },
    {
      "claim": "Federal water infrastructure investment is 4-5x lower than transportation, with an annual gap of $80-100 billion.",
      "type": "measured",
      "source": "ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (drinking water: C-) + federal budget analysis",
      "sourceUrl": "https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/drinking-water-infrastructure/",
      "caveat": "IIJA allocated $55B for water (largest-ever federal investment), but the annual gap persists. State and local spending supplements federal, but total remains below need."
    },
    {
      "claim": "ASR portfolio economics show BCR 2-4:1 under drought and 7-17:1 under megadrought, but are marginal (BCR 0.83) under normal hydrology.",
      "type": "modeled",
      "source": "Document 09 engineering cost model, 10 MAF/yr reference portfolio, 2026 USD",
      "sourceUrl": "/research/investment-scenario-roi.json",
      "caveat": "This is fundamentally an insurance investment. Economics only become strongly positive under drought — which is exactly when the infrastructure is needed. Honest presentation of the normal-case BCR <1 is essential for credibility."
    }
  ]
}