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ROI Scenario Assumptions

md

Scenario ROI Assumptions (Auditable, Range-Based)

Scope

Planning-level scenario model for a 10 MAF/year capture-treatment-injection portfolio under three hydrologic states:

  • **Normal**
  • **Drought**
  • **Megadrought**

    • All values are in 2026 USD and should be treated as modeled scenario outputs, not measured historical facts.

    Core Financial Inputs (Modeled)

  • CAPEX range: **$114B (low) / $224B (base) / $434B (high)**
  • Annual OPEX at full deployment: **$9.0B / $18.2B / $36.0B**
  • Discount rate: **5.0% real** (sensitivity at 3.5% and 7.0%)
  • Design life: **30 years**
  • Ramp-up: **5 years**

    • Scenario ROI Summary (Modeled)

    1) Normal

  • Net annual benefit: **$13.0B / $3.8B / -$14.0B** (low/base/high)
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio: **1.46 / 0.83 / 0.49**
  • Interpretation: highly sensitive to execution discipline and cost control.

    • 2) Drought

  • Net annual benefit: **$55.0B / $45.8B / $28.0B**
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio: **3.92 / 2.35 / 1.07**
  • Interpretation: avoided-loss value dominates as supply stress rises.

    • 3) Megadrought

  • Net annual benefit: **$133.0B / $123.8B / $106.0B**
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio: **9.44 / 6.98 / 4.06**
  • Interpretation: behaves like infrastructure + catastrophe insurance.

    • Formula Skeleton

    Annual Net Benefit = Gross Scenario Benefit - Scenario OPEX

    `Simple Payback = CAPEX / Annual Net Benefit` (when annual net benefit > 0)

    BCR = PV(Benefits) / PV(Costs)

    Measured Inputs Used to Constrain Scenarios

  • USGS groundwater decline/depletion context
  • NOAA drought and climate trend records
  • Public water-system and agricultural stress signals from federal datasets

    • Explicit Caveats

  • This is **not** a deterministic forecast.
  • Values are sensitive to permitting timelines, treatment requirements, energy prices, and hydrogeologic constraints.
  • Report as ranges and confidence levels, not single-point certainty.

    • Linked Data Artifact

  • `/research/investment-scenario-roi.json`

    • Raw file: /research/scenario-roi-assumptions.md