Data Provenance
Every Claim Is Traceable
Every headline stat is tagged as measured, derived, or modeled. Every chart points to a source file and method. Click any resource below to see the full data, sources, and methodology.
Provenance Registry
Every headline stat tagged as measured, derived, or modeled
Megadrought Probability Timeline
Scenario model with P10/P50/P90 uncertainty bands
Preparedness Phases
25-year build plan across three deployment phases
Investment + Scenario ROI
Full BCR matrix across normal, drought, and megadrought scenarios
Why Now Stats + Caveats
Source-backed claims with honest caveats for each
ROI Scenario Assumptions
Complete methodology, formula skeleton, and explicit caveats
Water Budget Balance Sheet
Regional supply/demand analysis with ASR augmentation
Capture Model Method
Stormwater capture methodology: exceedance analysis, constraints, regional estimates
Monitoring Wells Method
USGS NWIS + GRACE satellite depletion tracking methodology
Monte Carlo Simulation Results
100K paths per aquifer — crisis probabilities, confidence intervals, expected crisis years
CMIP6 Climate Scenario Analysis
SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 decade-by-decade drought probability with PDSI shifts
AR(1) Drought Persistence Analysis
Autocorrelation coefficients, 600× multiplier derivation, megadrought probabilities
20 Most At-Risk Wells
Site-level analysis: depletion rates, crisis probabilities, geographic coordinates for 288 USGS wells
Sensitivity Analysis & Uncertainty Quantification
Factor importance, confidence intervals, and what-would-change-our-mind scenarios