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Data Provenance
Investment + Scenario ROI
title
Total Investment Range and Scenario ROI
version
1.0.0
as Of
2026-02-22
currency
USD 2026
classification
modeled
investment Range
low Capex Billion
114
base Capex Billion
224
high Capex Billion
434
note
Portfolio-scale planning range from reference 10 MAF/yr program
scenarios
name
Normal
annual Net Benefit Billion
low Case
13
base Case
3.8
high Case
-14
benefit Cost Ratio
low Case
1.46
base Case
0.83
high Case
0.49
interpretation
Execution-sensitive in normal hydrology; requires cost discipline.
name
Drought
annual Net Benefit Billion
low Case
55
base Case
45.8
high Case
28
benefit Cost Ratio
low Case
3.92
base Case
2.35
high Case
1.07
interpretation
Avoided-loss value dominates under recurring shortages.
name
Megadrought
annual Net Benefit Billion
low Case
133
base Case
123.8
high Case
106
benefit Cost Ratio
low Case
9.44
base Case
6.98
high Case
4.06
interpretation
Functions as infrastructure + catastrophe insurance in extreme stress.
Raw file: /research/investment-scenario-roi.json