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Data Provenance

Investment + Scenario ROI

json
title

Total Investment Range and Scenario ROI

version

1.0.0

as Of

2026-02-22

currency

USD 2026

classification

modeled

investment Range
low Capex Billion

114

base Capex Billion

224

high Capex Billion

434

note

Portfolio-scale planning range from reference 10 MAF/yr program

scenarios
name

Normal

annual Net Benefit Billion
low Case

13

base Case

3.8

high Case

-14

benefit Cost Ratio
low Case

1.46

base Case

0.83

high Case

0.49

interpretation

Execution-sensitive in normal hydrology; requires cost discipline.

name

Drought

annual Net Benefit Billion
low Case

55

base Case

45.8

high Case

28

benefit Cost Ratio
low Case

3.92

base Case

2.35

high Case

1.07

interpretation

Avoided-loss value dominates under recurring shortages.

name

Megadrought

annual Net Benefit Billion
low Case

133

base Case

123.8

high Case

106

benefit Cost Ratio
low Case

9.44

base Case

6.98

high Case

4.06

interpretation

Functions as infrastructure + catastrophe insurance in extreme stress.

source