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Data Provenance
Megadrought Probability Timeline
title
Megadrought Probability Timeline (Scenario Model)
version
1.0.0
as Of
2026-02-22
units
probability percent
classification
modeled
method
Scenario model calibrated to historical drought baseline + warming/depletion multipliers; presented as uncertainty bands to avoid false precision.
timeline
window
2026-2035
p10
15
p50
35
p90
55
confidence
medium
notes
Risk rises as drought persistence and groundwater stress compound.
window
2036-2045
p10
40
p50
62
p90
85
confidence
medium
notes
Modeled risk accelerates if warming trend and depletion trend continue.
window
2046-2055
p10
55
p50
78
p90
93
confidence
low-medium
notes
Tail risk remains high; uncertainty widens with policy/adaptation responses.