Data Provenance
Provenance Registry
2.0.0
2026-02-23
Every headline stat is tagged as measured, derived, or modeled. Corrected per independent stress-test validation.
aquifer_depletion_rate
U.S. aquifers are depleting at 25 km³/year — 3x the 20th century average
measured
high
USGS SIR 2013-5079 (Konikow 2013), updated with GRACE-FO satellite data
Most robust and defensible statistic in the entire analysis. Direct measurement via 20,000+ monitoring wells + satellite gravimetry.
megadrought_probability
>60% probability of unprecedented megadrought this century
modeled (peer-reviewed)
medium-high
Cook et al. 2015 (Science Advances) — >80% under RCP 8.5; Williams et al. 2022 (Nature Climate Change) — worst 22-yr drought in 1,200 years
Regional to SW US. Probability is scenario-dependent (RCP 8.5 = high emissions). We present >60% as conservative aggregate. Original research model's '100%' claim was methodologically unsound.
bcr_drought
Every $1 invested returns $2-4 under drought conditions
modeled
medium
Document 09: CAPEX/OPEX Scenario ROI model, 10 MAF/yr reference portfolio
BCR 2.35 at base cost under drought. BCR 3.92 at low cost. Under normal hydrology, base-case BCR is 0.83 (marginally negative). Honest range presentation is critical.
bcr_megadrought
BCR 7-17:1 under severe megadrought scenarios
modeled
medium
Document 09 + stress-test validation extending to paleoclimate scenarios
9.44:1 from low-cost/megadrought model. 17:1 maximum defensible under extreme paleoclimate megadrought (30+ years). Claims above 17:1 are NOT supported by rigorous methodology.
central_valley_critical
Central Valley faces critical aquifer depletion by 2047-2069
measured + modeled
high
USGS + NASA GRACE + California SGMA legislation timeline
Best-supported timeline claim. 40% depleted (measured). SGMA legislation confirms regulators agree on the urgency. Range reflects management response uncertainty.
infrastructure_gap
Federal water infrastructure spending is 4-5x lower than transportation — $80-100B/yr gap
measured
high
ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (drinking water: C-) + federal budget analysis
IIJA allocated $55B for water (largest ever) but annual gap persists at $80-100B/yr.
investment_base_case
$224 billion base-case CAPEX for 10 MAF/yr ASR program
modeled
medium
Document 09 engineering cost model
Range: $114B (low) to $434B (high). Earlier $6.6T figure from separate model had apparent errors and has been deprecated.
megadrought_probability_timeline
Megadrought probability timeline with uncertainty bands
modeled
medium
Internal scenario model calibrated to Cook et al. + Williams et al. + USGS depletion data
Presented as P10/P50/P90 bands to avoid false precision.
preparedness_phases
25-year build plan (0-5yr, 5-12yr, 12-25yr phases)
program plan
Program design assumptions + staged deployment model
water_budget
Regional water budget balance sheet
measured (demand) + modeled (capture)
USGS water-use data + state water plans + engineering capture model
ASR reduces deficit by ~52% but cannot eliminate it. Demand management is essential complement.
Raw file: /research/provenance-registry.json